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Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the IMF, said: “Fiscal policy won’t be curbed until soaring bond yields trigger “very painful” tax increases and spending cuts.” He called this great recession the “worst global financial meltdown since the 1930s”. If you have the stomach for risk, than this statement by Ringoff should be music to your ears: “Investors will eventually demand higher interest rates to lend to countries around the world that have accumulated debt, including the U.S.” Some economists are saying that Europe will fall followed by the U.S. Rogoff stopped short of that prediction. He said: “I don’t think Europe’s going to succeed.” Some financial advisers believe that non-dollar denominated securities are a good investment. This is how Rogoff sees it: ““Clearly the dollar is going to go down against the emerging markets -- there’s going to be concern about inflation and the debt.” But then there are market players who would rather short the domestic market and make a killing. Take your pick. Rogoff sees interest rates on U.S. treasuries rising to 6 or 7 percent. That will not be good for paying back the national debt. How bad off is the global market? “Greece’s debt totaled 298.5 billion euros ($405 billion) at the end of 2009, according to the Finance Ministry. That’s more than five times more than Russia owed when it defaulted in 1998 and Argentina when it missed payments in 2001.” If global default helps strengthen the U.S. Dollar then having a mattress stuffed with them may be a good investment. |